Philippine weather is regional before it is seasonal. A blue-sky week in El Nido can coincide with a grey, wind-whipped week in Siargao, and vice versa. Use this month-by-month guide as a starting point, then check the coast you are actually heading to. Temperatures at sea level sit between about 24°C and 33°C all year; humidity is high in every month. What changes is the rain, the wind and the state of the sea.
How to read Philippine weather
Two things drive almost everything. The northeast monsoon (amihan), roughly November to March, brings rain to east-facing coasts and cooler, drier air to the west. The southwest monsoon (habagat), roughly June to October, brings the wet season to the west, including Manila and Palawan. Typhoons are most frequent between July and November and mostly affect Luzon and the Visayas.
Month by month
- January: one of the best months for most of the country. Dry and comparatively cool in the west, with sea breezes in Palawan and Boracay. The east (Siargao, Samar, eastern Mindanao) can be rainy and the sea rough. Festival season: Sinulog in Cebu and Ati-Atihan in Kalibo. Book early.
- February: probably the most reliable month for a classic first trip. Dry across Palawan, Bohol, Cebu and Boracay, with Manila pleasant in the evenings. The amihan can still make some boat crossings bumpy on windy afternoons. Chinese New Year sometimes falls in this month and fills hotels.
- March: the dry season settles in properly. Seas calm down, diving visibility improves and the heat starts to build. Batanes begins its good season. Excellent month for El Nido and Coron island-hopping.
- April: hot, dry and usually calm. Beaches are at their most photogenic. Holy Week, which often falls in April, sends much of the country to the coast, so book beach towns well ahead. Manila is very hot.
- May: the hottest month in many places, often above 33°C in Manila. Seas still mostly calm. Late May can bring the first thunderstorms and, some years, an early typhoon. A good value month if you can handle the heat.
- June: the southwest monsoon begins in the west. Expect afternoon storms in Manila and Palawan, but also plenty of usable mornings. Prices start to drop. Siargao, Camiguin and Bohol are sensible choices.
- July: wet in Manila, Palawan and western Luzon, with more frequent typhoons. Sea crossings in the west are more often cancelled. The east and south are generally better. Good for travellers with flexible plans.
- August: often the wettest month in Manila. Typhoon activity is high. Siargao's surf season is starting and the island usually sees long sunny spells. Coron, being more sheltered, can still work for wreck diving.
- September: still wet in the west and an active typhoon month. Siargao's surf is generally at its best and the island is lively; competitions are often held around this time. Lowest prices in many beach towns.
- October: the transition month. The southwest monsoon weakens, but typhoons remain possible. Some years October is beautiful in Palawan; some years it is not. MassKara Festival in Bacolod.
- November: drying out in the west, though late typhoons do happen. Crowds have not arrived yet and hotels are still moderately priced. The amihan begins to bring rain to the east. A smart month for flexible travellers who want Palawan without the peak.
- December: the dry season returns to most of the west, with lovely clear mornings. The east can be wet. Christmas is the biggest celebration of the year in the Philippines and the last two weeks of December are the busiest and most expensive of all.
Sea conditions matter more than rain
For an island trip, the question that matters most is not whether it will rain but whether boats will sail. A shower at 4pm costs you nothing. A small-craft advisory costs you a day. Sea conditions tend to be calmest from March to May across most of the country. In the amihan months, crossings on exposed routes can be cancelled on windy days even when the sky is blue.
Rain, but what kind?
Wet-season rain in the Philippines is usually not all-day drizzle. More often it is a heavy downpour in the afternoon or evening, followed by clear air. The exceptions are typhoons and the stretches when the southwest monsoon is strengthened by a passing storm, when it can rain hard for two or three days. That is when flights are cancelled and ferries stay in port.
Microclimates worth knowing
- Baguio, Sagada and the Cordillera: noticeably cooler, especially at night. Bring a fleece from December to February, when mornings can feel cold.
- Batanes: windswept, with its own rhythm. Best from March to May; flights are frequently cancelled in bad weather.
- Siargao and Surigao: the wettest stretch is often around December to February, under the amihan.
- Cebu, Bohol and Negros: relatively sheltered and often a reasonable choice in any month.
- Mindanao: generally outside the typhoon belt, with rain spread more evenly across the year.
How we plan around it
We look at three things before suggesting a route: the month, the coast each island faces, and how many sea crossings the plan relies on. In the wet season, we favour flights over long ferries, keep boat days in the morning, and end every itinerary close to the international airport with a spare day. In the dry season, we do the opposite and take the boats, because that is when the crossings are a highlight rather than a risk.
